The last few weeks haven’t been kind to Bitcoin. The price has been under significant pressure, leaving many investors wondering: Is this just a temporary breather, or are we staring down the barrel of a full-blown bear market? I don’t have a crystal ball, but I’ve updated my Bitcoin forecast based on seasonality and cyclical analysis. Let’s break it down.

The recent pullback? Yeah, the model saw that coming. It was flagged in earlier forecasts, so while it might feel like a surprise to some, it’s been on the radar for a while. Now, the big question is: What’s next?

First, let’s talk about the model I’m using. The red line in the chart represents what I call the “dynamic model.” Historically, it’s done a decent job of tracking Bitcoin’s major moves. But here’s the thing: the height of the line isn’t meant to predict specific price targets. Instead, it gives us an idea of the general direction. Think of it as a compass, not a GPS.

Based on the current data, we’re expecting more market weakness to stick around until mid-April. That doesn’t mean it’s all doom and gloom, though. After this period of consolidation, there’s a chance we could see a new rally kick off. Timing the market is always tricky, but if the model holds up, we might be looking at a turnaround in the second half of April.

So, is this the start of a bear market? Not necessarily. It could just be a bump in the road before the next upward move. As always, keep an eye on the bigger picture and don’t let short-term volatility shake you out of your long-term strategy. And remember, no model is perfect—this is just one tool in the toolbox.

Stay tuned, and let’s see how this plays out.