Hess Corporation (NYSE: HES) is a global energy company engaged in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas. Headquartered in New York City, Hess operates both onshore and offshore projects worldwide, with a strong focus on the Gulf of Mexico, Guyana, and the Bakken Shale in North Dakota. Over the years, the company has positioned itself as a key player in the energy sector, benefiting from rising oil prices and efficient operational management.
A Strong Seasonal Pattern in March
One of the most compelling trading opportunities for Hess Corporation occurs between March 11 and April 10. Over the past 25 years, the stock price has increased in this period in 24 out of 25 years, reflecting an impressive 96% win rate. The average price gain during this timeframe has been approximately 5.5%.
While the exact reasons behind this seasonal strength are not always clear, possible factors include the general strength of the energy sector during this time, earnings expectations, and broader market trends. Regardless of the cause, the historical pattern is strong enough to warrant attention from traders looking for short-term opportunities.
How to Execute the Trade
Traders looking to capitalize on this seasonal pattern can follow a straightforward approach:
- Entry Point: Open a long position in HES stock on or around March 11.
- Holding Period: Maintain the position until approximately April 10.
- Exit Strategy: Consider closing the trade before or on April 10 to lock in potential gains based on historical trends.
- Risk Management: While the pattern has been highly reliable, setting a stop-loss to limit downside risk is advisable. Additionally, traders may choose to take partial profits along the way if the stock experiences significant early gains.
| Status | Change | Percentage | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UP | $13.33 | 9.2% | 03.11.2024 | $144.66 | 04.10.2024 | $157.99 |
| UP | $9.2300 | 6.9% | 03.10.2023 | $133.10 | 04.10.2023 | $142.33 |
| UP | $15.10 | 15.6% | 03.11.2022 | $96.66 | 04.11.2022 | $111.76 |
| UP | $2.3000 | 3.2% | 03.11.2021 | $71.50 | 04.09.2021 | $73.80 |
| UP | $2.4900 | 6.6% | 03.11.2020 | $37.89 | 04.09.2020 | $40.38 |
| UP | $5.0800 | 13.7% | 03.11.2019 | $37.16 | 04.10.2019 | $42.24 |
| UP | $3.6267 | 11.3% | 03.12.2018 | $32.17 | 04.10.2018 | $35.79 |
| UP | $0.7533 | 2.3% | 03.10.2017 | $32.56 | 04.10.2017 | $33.31 |
| UP | $3.6133 | 11.0% | 03.11.2016 | $32.88 | 04.11.2016 | $36.49 |
| UP | $2.4067 | 5.2% | 03.11.2015 | $46.34 | 04.10.2015 | $48.75 |
| UP | $1.1200 | 2.0% | 03.11.2014 | $54.89 | 04.10.2014 | $56.01 |
| UP | $2.4600 | 5.3% | 03.11.2013 | $46.15 | 04.10.2013 | $48.61 |
| DOWN | $5.0933 | 12.1% | 03.12.2012 | $42.06 | 04.10.2012 | $36.97 |
| UP | $2.4333 | 4.7% | 03.11.2011 | $52.09 | 04.11.2011 | $54.52 |
| UP | $2.5600 | 6.3% | 03.11.2010 | $40.61 | 04.09.2010 | $43.17 |
| UP | $0.1600 | 0.4% | 03.11.2009 | $38.80 | 04.09.2009 | $38.96 |
| UP | $2.3533 | 3.8% | 03.11.2008 | $62.00 | 04.10.2008 | $64.35 |
| UP | $2.8200 | 8.1% | 03.12.2007 | $34.77 | 04.10.2007 | $37.59 |
| UP | $2.7244 | 9.0% | 03.10.2006 | $30.11 | 04.10.2006 | $32.83 |
| UP | $0.1933 | 0.9% | 03.11.2005 | $21.74 | 04.11.2005 | $21.94 |
| UP | $0.3444 | 2.4% | 03.11.2004 | $14.33 | 04.12.2004 | $14.68 |
| UP | $0.2156 | 2.3% | 03.11.2003 | $9.5667 | 04.10.2003 | $9.7822 |
| UP | $0.9200 | 5.6% | 03.11.2002 | $16.57 | 04.10.2002 | $17.49 |
| UP | $0.7733 | 4.4% | 03.12.2001 | $17.46 | 04.10.2001 | $18.23 |
| UP | $1.2500 | 9.9% | 03.10.2000 | $12.64 | 04.10.2000 | $13.89 |
Risk Considerations
Despite the strong historical trend, past performance does not guarantee future results. Market conditions, macroeconomic factors, and unexpected company-specific news can impact the trade. Furthermore, energy prices, which heavily influence Hess Corporation’s stock, can be volatile and subject to geopolitical risks.
Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consider their risk tolerance before entering any trade. Using proper risk management strategies, such as stop-loss orders, position sizing, and diversification, can help mitigate potential losses.
Conclusion
Hess Corporation presents an intriguing seasonal trading opportunity between March 11 and April 10, based on a historically strong pattern. With a 96% win rate and an average return of5.5% over the past 25 years, this trade is worth considering for those who engage in seasonal strategies. However, as with all trades, risk management remains crucial to protect against unforeseen market movements.
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