What Are Lean Hogs?
Lean Hogs (LE) are a futures contract traded on the CME, representing the price of pork in the U.S. market. These contracts are widely used by farmers, food producers, and traders to hedge or speculate on pork prices. The market is influenced by various factors such as feed costs, seasonal demand fluctuations, and export trends.
Lean Hogs – March / April
| Status | Change | Percentage | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UP | $9.6000 | 10.8% | 04.05.2024 | $88.78 | 04.23.2024 | $98.38 |
| UP | $4.3000 | 5.9% | 04.06.2023 | $73.40 | 04.24.2023 | $77.70 |
| UP | $13.52 | 13.7% | 04.06.2022 | $98.33 | 04.22.2022 | $111.85 |
| UP | $6.6000 | 6.4% | 04.06.2021 | $102.75 | 04.23.2021 | $109.35 |
| UP | $10.75 | 26.7% | 04.06.2020 | $40.23 | 04.23.2020 | $50.98 |
| UP | $7.9300 | 9.9% | 04.05.2019 | $79.90 | 04.23.2019 | $87.83 |
| UP | $15.35 | 29.2% | 04.06.2018 | $52.65 | 04.23.2018 | $68.00 |
| UP | $0.5000 | 0.8% | 04.06.2017 | $63.90 | 04.24.2017 | $64.40 |
| UP | $8.2500 | 12.2% | 04.06.2016 | $67.45 | 04.22.2016 | $75.70 |
| UP | $8.5200 | 13.4% | 04.06.2015 | $63.40 | 04.23.2015 | $71.92 |
| UP | $0.5000 | 0.4% | 04.07.2014 | $123.47 | 04.23.2014 | $123.97 |
| UP | $6.3300 | 7.8% | 04.05.2013 | $81.50 | 04.23.2013 | $87.83 |
| UP | $3.6800 | 4.4% | 04.05.2012 | $84.35 | 04.23.2012 | $88.03 |
| UP | $6.1400 | 6.5% | 04.06.2011 | $94.00 | 04.22.2011 | $100.14 |
| UP | $11.05 | 14.5% | 04.06.2010 | $76.35 | 04.23.2010 | $87.40 |
| UP | $9.5500 | 15.9% | 04.06.2009 | $60.00 | 04.23.2009 | $69.55 |
| UP | $15.75 | 26.9% | 04.07.2008 | $58.50 | 04.23.2008 | $74.25 |
| UP | $11.25 | 17.2% | 04.05.2007 | $65.40 | 04.23.2007 | $76.65 |
| UP | $10.43 | 18.9% | 04.06.2006 | $55.10 | 04.24.2006 | $65.53 |
| UP | $7.0200 | 10.3% | 04.06.2005 | $68.20 | 04.22.2005 | $75.22 |
A Strong Seasonal Pattern in April
Seasonality plays a significant role in commodity markets, and Lean Hogs show a particularly interesting pattern in April. Over the last 20 years, the price of Lean Hogs has increased between April 6th and April 23rd every single year. This translates into a 100% win rate, with an average gain of 12.6% and a median return of 11.5% during this period.
While past performance does not guarantee future results, such a strong historical tendency is worth analyzing for potential trading opportunities.
How to Trade This Seasonal Setup
Traders looking to capitalize on this seasonal pattern have a few different approaches:
- Breakout Strategy – A more conservative way to enter is to wait for a technical breakout, such as a move above a key resistance level or a bullish price pattern.
- Momentum Confirmation – Using indicators like RSI, MACD, or moving averages to confirm upward momentum before entering a trade.
- Aggressive Entry – Some traders might choose to enter around April 6th without confirmation. While this method captures the full move if the pattern holds, it also carries a higher risk if the pattern fails.
Regardless of the approach, proper risk management is crucial. Traders should set stop-loss levels to limit potential losses and adjust position sizes based on their risk tolerance.
Risk Disclaimer
Trading futures contracts involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. While historical patterns can provide useful insights, they do not guarantee future performance. Traders should conduct their own analysis and consider consulting with a financial professional before entering any trade.
Image generated using Craiyon.com.
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