Mondelez International – A Brief Overview
Mondelez International (NASDAQ: MDLZ) is one of the world’s largest snack companies, owning popular brands like Oreo, Cadbury, and Toblerone. The company has a strong global presence and benefits from consistent consumer demand for its products. As a defensive stock in the consumer staples sector, Mondelez often attracts investors looking for stability and long-term growth.
A Seasonal Pattern in MDLZ
Seasonality is a well-known phenomenon in financial markets, where certain stocks tend to perform better during specific times of the year. In the case of Mondelez, a particularly interesting seasonal anomaly occurs between late March and early May.
Over the last 20 years, MDLZ stock has risen between March 28 and May 10 in 19 out of 20 years. This translates to an impressive win rate of 95%. The average return (mean) during this period was 5.25%, while the median return was 4.1%.
These statistics suggest that Mondelez exhibits a strong seasonal uptrend during this time frame, making it an attractive candidate for a short-term trade.
MDLZ March Seasonality
| Status | Change | Percentage | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UP | $0.7300 | 1.0% | 03.28.2024 | $70.47 | 05.10.2024 | $71.20 |
| UP | $8.6800 | 12.5% | 03.28.2023 | $69.21 | 05.10.2023 | $77.89 |
| UP | $4.2700 | 6.9% | 03.28.2022 | $61.65 | 05.10.2022 | $65.92 |
| UP | $2.7300 | 4.6% | 03.29.2021 | $59.34 | 05.10.2021 | $62.07 |
| UP | $3.3700 | 7.1% | 03.27.2020 | $47.42 | 05.11.2020 | $50.79 |
| UP | $2.8100 | 5.7% | 03.28.2019 | $49.06 | 05.10.2019 | $51.87 |
| DOWN | $1.6700 | 4.1% | 03.28.2018 | $40.77 | 05.10.2018 | $39.10 |
| UP | $0.8500 | 2.0% | 03.28.2017 | $43.40 | 05.10.2017 | $44.25 |
| UP | $5.3700 | 13.5% | 03.28.2016 | $39.67 | 05.10.2016 | $45.04 |
| UP | $4.2700 | 12.2% | 03.27.2015 | $35.06 | 05.11.2015 | $39.33 |
| UP | $3.6100 | 10.5% | 03.28.2014 | $34.35 | 05.09.2014 | $37.96 |
| UP | $0.1900 | 0.6% | 03.28.2013 | $30.44 | 05.10.2013 | $30.63 |
| UP | $0.6412 | 2.6% | 03.28.2012 | $24.92 | 05.10.2012 | $25.56 |
| UP | $1.8778 | 9.2% | 03.28.2011 | $20.51 | 05.10.2011 | $22.39 |
| UP | $0.07850 | 0.4% | 03.29.2010 | $19.89 | 05.10.2010 | $19.97 |
| UP | $1.5442 | 10.3% | 03.27.2009 | $14.94 | 05.11.2009 | $16.49 |
| UP | $0.2029 | 1.0% | 03.28.2008 | $20.30 | 05.09.2008 | $20.51 |
| UP | $0.6215 | 3.0% | 03.28.2007 | $20.64 | 05.10.2007 | $21.26 |
| UP | $0.7066 | 3.5% | 03.28.2006 | $20.04 | 05.10.2006 | $20.75 |
| UP | $0.5169 | 2.5% | 03.28.2005 | $20.77 | 05.10.2005 | $21.29 |
How to Trade This Seasonal Pattern
For traders looking to capitalize on this trend, there are a few approaches to consider:
1. Entry Timing and Confirmation
- A conservative approach would be to wait for an entry signal, such as a breakout above a recent resistance level, an increase in trading volume, or a moving average crossover.
- Using technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or MACD can help confirm momentum before entering a position.
2. Aggressive Entry Without Confirmation
- Traders who are more aggressive may choose to enter around March 28 without waiting for confirmation, purely based on the historical pattern.
- This approach carries higher risk, as there is no guarantee that the seasonal trend will repeat exactly as it has in the past.
3. Risk Management
- Stop-Loss Placement: A prudent risk management strategy involves placing a stop-loss below a key support level to limit downside risk.
- Position Sizing: Risk-conscious traders should avoid overexposure and may consider diversifying their trades to mitigate potential losses.
- Profit Targets: Setting a profit target around the median or average return (4-5%) could be a sensible approach to locking in gains before the seasonal pattern potentially reverses.
Important Risk Disclaimer
While historical trends can provide valuable insights, past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Market conditions, economic events, or company-specific news can impact price movements unpredictably. Traders should always conduct their own research, use proper risk management strategies, and consider their individual risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
Conclusion
The seasonal strength of Mondelez International between March 28 and May 10 presents an intriguing trading opportunity. With a 95% win rate over the last two decades, the pattern is statistically significant. However, as with any trading strategy, risk management is crucial. Whether taking a conservative or aggressive approach, traders should remain disciplined and adapt to changing market conditions.
Would you consider adding Mondelez to your seasonal trading watchlist?
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